This post is to write the Bayesian proof of the monte hall goat problem. Below is the statement of the problem from wikipedia:
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Analysis: the answer to this question is depending on whether you’re a Bayesian or a frequentist. Although the former is the approach through which the answer is widely known (with hidden assumptions such as the host is randomly choosing between the rest doors if your first guess is correct).
Bayesian:
Denote as event that the car is behind the door i, as event of your first guess, as event that the host opened the door i with a goat behind. Hence,
Meanwhile ,. Therefore, the correct choice is to switch your decision from door 1 to door 2.
Frequentist:
However, as a frequentist, there is no prior distribution. This approach would draw the inference as below:
Assume, , then
is a big number, therefore, we’re not able to reject . Vice Versa for H_a.
Unfortunately, frequentist is not able to answer the question of posterior probability so it’s not able to answer the question whether switch or not.